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Poking Holes in the Bitcoin Bull Case – Chat With Anthony Pompliano (Ep. 176)

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In this video I enlist the help of Anthony Pompliano (aka Pomp) to help me think through some of the long-term concerns and risks I see for Bitcoin.

Pomp on Twitter: https://twitter.com/APompliano

The Investment Case For Bitcoin by Pomp, https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-investment-case-for-bitcoin

0:18 – Intro
0:37 – Start of Interview
0:56 – Background of my Bitcoin thoughts
1:45 – Short-term appeal of Bitcoin
2:28 – Government overreach and personal liberties
3:57 – Government crackdown on Bitcoin and Crypto
4:48 – Elimination of cash, loaded with government debt, need to raise taxes
6:16 – Where Bitcoin is today
6:55 – Bitcoin as transparent Ledger
9:17 – Bitcoin taxed
10:00 – U.S. backed digital USD, every currency will be digitized
11:15 – Global game theory and accessibility
13:00 – Digital wall adoption
13:50 – Flow of capital from soft to hard currencies
15:34 – Why U.S. won’t ban Bitcoin
18:00 – Bitcoin wallet holders identities
19:20 – Why governments can enforce a ban of Bitcoin if poses existential threat
21:15 – If government requires reporting of assets
22:30 – The more success Bitcoin has, the more motivation government has to ban it
24:18 – Government already taxing Bitcoin transactions
26:00 – Bitcoin bulls in government
27:55 – Bitcoin held by millions of people
28:38 – U.S. dollar will fail, Bitcoin as Internet currency
33:22 – Reasons on how governments can ban Bitcoin
36:40 – Survival of governments at stake
37:15 – Why Bitcoin won’t become global reserve currency
40:50 – Federal Reserve’s role in devaluing money, inflation
44:45 – Bitcoin as deflationary monetary system
47:40 – Bitcoin not pegged to actual people’s income/revenue
49:13 – Bitcoin pegged to commodity of computing power53:50 – Value of computing power based on resulting products and services
56:00 – Bitcoin compared to centralized digital Ledger
58:28 – Decentralized financial system even trading stocks
59:55 – Bitcoin lack of intrinsic value 10-20 years out
1:03:10 – Probabilities of Bitcoin becoming global reserve currency
1:05:22 – Store of Value: comparing Bitcoin vs real estate
1:11:40 – Thinking in probabilities
1:12:45 – Store of value argument for Bitcoin lacks stability
1:18:10 – Can Bitcoin save the world
1:21:05 – Concluding thoughts

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6 Comments

  1. 1:15 – 'the store of value…' – for some people, myself amongst them, it's a possible store or better put, preservation of value against the possibility of catastrophic failure within the legacy financial system. The thinking isn't so much that I want to store value in something that isn't going to suffer inflation, it's moreso a thought line of sensing deep instability in legacy financial systems and seeking a life boat to preserve value. The volatility is accepted as part of this- as IF true, IF the legacy systems suffer a meltdown of sorts and go through some sort of reboot and reorg, the financial waters are going to be insanely choppy, and that chop is definitely going to impact Bitcoin. I think the chop we're seeing now, the volatility of Bitcoin IS the speculative market already pricing in or factoring in that potential future chop. I think there's a big difference between people putting their savings into bitcoin to store value (against inflation) vs people putting their savings into bitcoin to preserve value (in the event of the legacy system crashing). And crashing doesn't mean the end of the dollar, it's just recognizing that you can only kick the can down the road for so long, eventually the debt, money printing and overall poor monetary policy will have it's day. And when that day comes, no one is sure how governments will respond and what they'll do to try and reset, rebalance, or 'save' their system and authority (to control monetary policy). Putting a portion of your wealth into Bitcoin is akin to putting some of your personal belongings in a life raft in the event things get really bad. The legacy financial system is like a giant, old boat… and some people are concerned for the future of that boat and it's capacity to endure. There are life rafts, but they're limited in their numbers (just like the supply of Bitcoin is limited, capped). If things start going south quickly for the 'big boat', it's going to be increasingly more expensive to get a spot on a life raft.

  2. Hi Dave, I do not buy Bitcoin anymore because the bitcoin fiat bank (yes there is bank for Bitcoin as the fiat money needs to go somewhere when buying Bitcoins and also when cashing back into fiat money from Bitcoin). The problem is the miners. They do not buy Bitcoin with fiat money, they get them by using their computing power. They are paid for their services by getting Bitcoins. Then by exchanging their Bitcoins for fiat money, they do decrease the fiat money available n the Bitcoing fiat bank. At the end, there is less fiat money in the Bitcoin bank than the corresponding amount that got in in the first place by the buyers of Bitcoin using the fiat money. There are early miners out there who have thousand of Bitcoins and when they cash out, they deplete the fiat money in the bitcoin bank tremendously as well as the Bitcoin price. There is far less fiat money in the Bitcoin bank than the amount of Bitcoins in circulation. There is another word for this situation and I will let you guess what it is.

  3. Real estate as my only or even primary store hold of value to me is very unattractive. I come from a family of real estate investors. Storing value in a high tech encrypted network is much more efficient. The illiquidity and amount of work that goes into real estate investing feels like entropy because of all the middle men and the counter party risk involved. I want to hold real estate for it's primary use cases like living in and working in not as a way to store value for later consumption.

  4. For people that don't have bitcoin I would suggest downloading Celcius app and buy their first bitcoin from there. Every monday you will get interest of 5 to 8 per cent depending on which coins you buy, you'll get an email notifying you and every friday Alex Mashinski will have a video talking about bitcoin, the economy and Celcius. You need to be in it to learn it, no use theorising and pontificating it. Every day when you wake up ask yourself how much of the 21 million bitcoin do you own? If you don't have any you should worry. If bitcoin like the gurus all say goes to one million then you are going to kick yourself. If you want to know how the CEO of Microstrategy came to the conclusion of buying 450 million bitcoin watch his interview with Raoul Pal, he will explain his thought process of how he finally came to the conclusion that bitcoin is the superior asset class. Nugget News did a interview with Mike Novagarth another amazing interview where he walks you through his journey of buying his first bitcoins, how he became a trader and this year finally decided to become a holder as he said bitcoin narrative has shifted as big players like Square and Pay pal has moved bitcoin from digital gold to become a payment instrument.

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